H1 Of 2008 Coldest Half Year Since H1 Of 1997

[Z00BN]

UAH June 2008 Anomaly Still Negative

8 Jul 2008



QUOTE: No, it is not a typo. I really mean that 2008 has been cooler
than the "cold" La Nina years and half-years during the 1998-2001 La
Nina episode, too. And that's true despite the fact that the 1998-2001
La Nina episode was both longer and stronger than the recent one. To
summarize, there's no global warming in the recent 10 years of data.



QUOTE: The Northern polar region cooled from 1.03 to 0.49 °C between May
and June 2008.



QUOTE: a Dutch team just published a study that shows that the Greenland
melting cycle exhibits no trend in the last 17 years.







According to UAH MSU, the global temperature anomaly in June 2008
was -0.11 °C, up from -0.18 °C in May 2008.



A similar warming from -0.083 °C in May 2008 to +0.035 °C in June 2008
has been reported by RSS MSU, too.



But let us focus on UAH MSU. Anomaly-wise, June 2008 was the third
coldest month of the 21st century so far, after May 2008 and July 2004
(that had -0.12 °C, almost the same temperature).



If I were as manipulative (or stupid) as Al Gore, I would also build on
the fact that three of the four months in this century with a negative
temperature anomaly occurred in 2008 (July 2004; January, May, June
2008).



But this statement is not so surprising for sensible people because the
temperature is a continuous (although not smooth) function of time and
nearby months should be expected to have similar temperatures. Once we
know that May 2008 was the coldest month, it shouldn't shock you that
you will find nearby months in the hit parade, too.



Polar regions



In terms of the anomaly, the land in the Southern polar lands -
Antarctica - cooled by a hefty 2.35 °C from the previous month - from
+0.82 to -1.53 °C. Such things happen near the poles where all changes
are amplified and where the area is not too large to guarantee a
constancy of temperature.



The Northern polar region cooled from 1.03 to 0.49 °C between May and
June 2008.



The total sea ice anomaly is currently near zero, as a positive anomaly
of the Southern Hemisphere cancels the negative anomaly of the Northern
Hemisphere. A year ago, the total anomaly was around -2 million squared
kilometers. Those "experts" who bet that there will be less ice in 2008
than 2007 don't look particularly clever to me.



By the way, a Dutch team just published a study that shows that the
Greenland melting cycle exhibits no trend in the last 17 years. See
Andrew Revkin's blog and NYT article.



The first half of 2008



The first half of 2008 is over so we can say something about this
period. According to the UAH MSU data, the average temperature anomaly
for those six months was -0.03 °C, making the H1 of 2008 the coldest
half-year since H1 of 1997. It's been a half-year of a cooling U.S. job
market, too.



No, it is not a typo. I really mean that 2008 has been cooler than the
"cold" La Nina years and half-years during the 1998-2001 La Nina
episode, too. And that's true despite the fact that the 1998-2001 La
Nina episode was both longer and stronger than the recent one. To
summarize, there's no global warming in the recent 10 years of data.



This absence of warming becomes even more striking in the middle
troposphere where the bulk of the greenhouse effect is being predicted
while the reality shows an even slower warming trend if any. In fact,
the trend since 1979 is 0.00 °C per decade on the Southern Hemisphere
and 0.05 °C per decade globally, justifying the claim that there exists
no satellite-observed global warming in the mid troposphere.



UAH MSU sees the global June 2008 anomaly in the mid troposphere
as -0.20 °C and the average of H1 of 2008 equals -0.18 °C. Since the
beginning of the UAH satellite records in 1979, only a few half-years in
1984, 1985, 1989, 1993 were cooler than H1 of 2008.



La Nina and the Sun



The La Nina conditions have changed to ENSO-neutral conditions that are
expected to last at least through the Fall 2008 which should remove the
negative ENSO bias: we will see whether we will return to "hot"
temperatures.



The Sun remains sunspot-free and quiet which could keep the Earth rather
cool.



http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/07/uah-june-2008-still-negative-anomaly.html

[Vote out Brendan Nelson]

Post by Z00BN
UAH June 2008 Anomaly Still Negative
8 Jul 2008
QUOTE: No, it is not a typo. I really mean that 2008 has been cooler
than the "cold" La Nina years and half-years during the 1998-2001 La
Nina episode, too. And that's true despite the fact that the 1998-2001
La Nina episode was both longer and stronger than the recent one. To
summarize, there's no global warming in the recent 10 years of data.
QUOTE: The Northern polar region cooled from 1.03 to 0.49 °C between May
and June 2008.
QUOTE: a Dutch team just published a study that shows that the Greenland
melting cycle exhibits no trend in the last 17 years.
According to UAH MSU, the global temperature anomaly in June 2008 was
-0.11 °C, up from -0.18 °C in May 2008.
A similar warming from -0.083 °C in May 2008 to +0.035 °C in June 2008
has been reported by RSS MSU, too.
But let us focus on UAH MSU. Anomaly-wise, June 2008 was the third
coldest month of the 21st century so far, after May 2008 and July 2004
(that had -0.12 °C, almost the same temperature).
If I were as manipulative (or stupid) as Al Gore, I would also build on
the fact that three of the four months in this century with a negative
temperature anomaly occurred in 2008 (July 2004; January, May, June 2008).
But this statement is not so surprising for sensible people because the
temperature is a continuous (although not smooth) function of time and
nearby months should be expected to have similar temperatures. Once we
know that May 2008 was the coldest month, it shouldn't shock you that
you will find nearby months in the hit parade, too.
Polar regions
In terms of the anomaly, the land in the Southern polar lands -
Antarctica - cooled by a hefty 2.35 °C from the previous month - from
+0.82 to -1.53 °C. Such things happen near the poles where all changes
are amplified and where the area is not too large to guarantee a
constancy of temperature.
The Northern polar region cooled from 1.03 to 0.49 °C between May and
June 2008.
The total sea ice anomaly is currently near zero, as a positive anomaly
of the Southern Hemisphere cancels the negative anomaly of the Northern
Hemisphere. A year ago, the total anomaly was around -2 million squared
kilometers. Those "experts" who bet that there will be less ice in 2008
than 2007 don't look particularly clever to me.
By the way, a Dutch team just published a study that shows that the
Greenland melting cycle exhibits no trend in the last 17 years. See
Andrew Revkin's blog and NYT article.
The first half of 2008
The first half of 2008 is over so we can say something about this
period. According to the UAH MSU data, the average temperature anomaly
for those six months was -0.03 °C, making the H1 of 2008 the coldest
half-year since H1 of 1997. It's been a half-year of a cooling U.S. job
market, too.
No, it is not a typo. I really mean that 2008 has been cooler than the
"cold" La Nina years and half-years during the 1998-2001 La Nina
episode, too. And that's true despite the fact that the 1998-2001 La
Nina episode was both longer and stronger than the recent one. To
summarize, there's no global warming in the recent 10 years of data.
This absence of warming becomes even more striking in the middle
troposphere where the bulk of the greenhouse effect is being predicted
while the reality shows an even slower warming trend if any. In fact,
the trend since 1979 is 0.00 °C per decade on the Southern Hemisphere
and 0.05 °C per decade globally, justifying the claim that there exists
no satellite-observed global warming in the mid troposphere.
UAH MSU sees the global June 2008 anomaly in the mid troposphere as
-0.20 °C and the average of H1 of 2008 equals -0.18 °C. Since the
beginning of the UAH satellite records in 1979, only a few half-years in
1984, 1985, 1989, 1993 were cooler than H1 of 2008.
La Nina and the Sun
The La Nina conditions have changed to ENSO-neutral conditions that are
expected to last at least through the Fall 2008 which should remove the
negative ENSO bias: we will see whether we will return to "hot"
temperatures.
The Sun remains sunspot-free and quiet which could keep the Earth rather
cool.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/07/uah-june-2008-still-negative-anomaly.html

Bullshit Australia has had the worst start to it's ski season in living
memory.

[V for Vendicar]

Global Land Temperature Warmest On Record In March 2008

ScienceDaily (Apr. 19, 2008) - The average global land temperature last
month
was the warmest on record and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th
warmest.
Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global
temperature
ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature
averages
have been recorded since 1880.

An analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center shows that the average
temperature for March in the contiguous United States ranked near average
for
the past 113 years. It was the 63rd warmest March since record-keeping began
in
the United States in 1895.

Global Highlights

The global land surface temperature was the warmest on record for March,
3.3°F
above the 20th century mean of 40.8°F. Temperatures more than 8°F above
average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after the greatest
January snow cover extent on record on the Eurasian continent, the
unusually
warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover extent on
the

Eurasian continent was the lowest on record.

The global surface (land and ocean surface) temperature was the second
warmest
on record for March in the 129-year record, 1.28°F above the 20th century
mean
of 54.9°F. The warmest March on record (1.33°F above average) occurred in
2002.

Although the ocean surface average was only the 13th warmest on record, as
the
cooling influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific continued, much
warmer
than average conditions across large parts of Eurasia helped push the
global
average to a near record high for March.

Despite above average snowpack levels in the U.S., the total Northern
Hemisphere snow cover extent was the fourth lowest on record for March,
remaining consistent with boreal spring conditions of the past two
decades, in
which warming temperatures have contributed to anomalously low snow cover
extent.

Some weakening of La Niña, the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation,
occurred in March, but moderate La Niña conditions remained across the
tropical Pacific Ocean.

U.S. Temperature Highlights

In the contiguous United States, the average temperature for March was
42°F,
which was 0.4°F below the 20th century mean, ranking it as the 63rd
warmest
March on record, based on preliminary data.

Only Rhode Island, New Mexico and Arizona were warmer than average, while
near-average temperatures occurred in 39 other states. The monthly
temperature
for Alaska was the 17th warmest on record, with an average temperature
3.8°F
above the 1971-2000 mean.

The broad area of near-average temperatures kept the nation's overall
temperature-related residential energy demand for March near average,
based on
NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights

Snowpack conditions dropped in many parts of the West in March, but in
general, heavy snowfall during December-February has left the western snow
pack among the healthiest in more than a decade, with most locations near
to
above average.

Nine states from Oklahoma to Vermont were much wetter than average, with
Missouri experiencing its second wettest March on record. Much of the
month's
precipitation fell March 17-20, when an intense storm system moved slowly
from
the southern Plains through the southern Midwest.

Rainfall amounts in a 48-hour period totaled 13.84 inches in Cape
Girardeau,
Mo., and 12.32 inches in Jackson, Mo. The heavy rainfall combined with
previously saturated ground resulted in widespread major flooding of
rivers
and streams from the Missouri Ozarks eastward into southern Indiana.
From March 7-9, eight to 12 inches of snow fell from Louisville, Ky., to
central Ohio. In Columbus, an all-time greatest 24-hour snowfall of 15.5
inches broke the old record of 12.3 inches set on April 4, 1987.
In the Southeast, a powerful tornado moved through downtown Atlanta on
March
14, causing significant damage to many buildings. This was one of 90
tornado
reports from the Southeast in March.

Rainfall in the middle of March improved drought conditions in much of the
Southeast, but moderate-to-extreme drought still remained in more than 59
percent of the region.

In the western U.S., the weather pattern in March bore a greater
resemblance
to a typical La Niña, with especially dry conditions across Utah, Arizona,
Nevada, and California. March was extremely dry in much of California,
tying
as the driest in 68 years at the Sacramento airport with 0.05 inches, a
2.75
inch departure from average.

[R Kym Horsell]

The JMA has just released its assessment of global surf temps in Oct
2023. Like other agencies it finds Oct is the latest of a string of
months that are well above prev records.
In the JMA dataset new records are typically .01-.05 above the prev
record for that month.
But Oct 2023 is 10x that -- more than 1/3 of a deg C above the super
El Nino years of 2015/16.

- - -
Monthly Anomalies of Global Average Surface Temperature in October (1891 - 2023,
preliminary value)

The monthly anomaly of the global average surface temperature in
October 2023 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over
land and the SST) was +0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average (+1.26°C
above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a
longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a
rate of about 0.70°C per century.


Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2023(+0.74°C),
<-- +.36!!
2nd. 2015(+0.38°C),
<-- +.03
3rd. 2019(+0.35°C),
<-- +.05
4th. 2022,2021(+0.30°C)

--
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